The 10 reasons - up or down

Courtesy of the Northern Echo

Five reasons why Newcastle will stay up

1.THE MICHAEL OWEN FACTOR

Having been without their record signing for more than six weeks, Newcastle finally boast a fit and hungry Michael Owen in their ranks.

He might have been understandably ring-rusty during last weekend’s draw at Hull, but England’s all-time leading competitive goalscorer is likely to prove pivotal to the Magpies’ survival campaign.

Last season, Owen scored seven goals in the final nine matches as Newcastle stormed up the table in April and May. A similar tally this time around would almost certainly see United safe.

2.OTHER IMPRESSIVE ATTACKING OPTIONS

Most sides battling against relegation do not boast a single world-class striker. Newcastle, for all their failings in other areas, can call on two of them.

Obafemi Martins might not be a natural goalscorer, but he can still be a defender’s nightmare and, if he plays alongside Owen for the remainder of the season, it is not inconceivable to expect the pair to share ten-or-more goals.

Throw in Mark Viduka, Shola Ameobi and even Alan Smith, and you have an attacking line-up that would improve a number of sides in the top half of the table.

3.PLAYERS COMING BACK FROM INJURY AND SUSPENSION

Injuries have plagued Newcastle all season and, while some of their big guns are already back, others are due to return soon.

Joey Barton and Danny Guthrie will surely improve a midfield that has been pedestrian in recent weeks, and while Kevin Nolan has not had too much time to impress since leaving Bolton, his return from suspension could hardly be more timely.

Even if the trio do not make an immediate impact on the pitch, their presence should still have a positive effect in terms of morale and competition for places.

4.DECENT RUN-IN AT HOME

While Newcastle’s next two home games pit them against sides in the top four, the three after that should offer a realistic chance of claiming nine crucial points.

Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Fulham all have to visit Gallowgate before the end of the season, and a maximum haul from those games would go a long way towards securing Newcastle’s top-flight status.

Crucially, it would also enable the Magpies to make ground at the expense of three of the sides around them – a significant incentive at this stage of the campaign.

5.THE STRENGTH OF THE ST JAMES’ PARK SUPPORT

A decent fixture list doesn’t matter if you’re unable to take advantage of it, but the presence of almost 50,000 baying Geordies could be Newcastle’s most effective weapon in the next two months.

Despite all that has been thrown at them this season, the Magpies faithful have remained supportive of their team, and their impact could be considerable in the home games that remain.

Since losing to Blackburn in September, Newcastle have not lost a home game to a side outside the top four, and the St James’ Park atmosphere has undoubtedly been a factor in that.

Five reasons why Newcastle will go down

1. DIFFICULT NEXT TWO MATCHESWhile the rest of Newcastle’s run-in is not too bad, they will do well to take anything from their next two games, and that could cause problems.

Arsenal and Chelsea are the Magpies’ next two opponents, and while both games are at home, their record against the top four this season is dreadful.

If Newcastle fail to win either game, they will almost certainly find themselves in the relegation zone. And their remaining matches will not look as easy if they enter the bottom three.

2. MANAGERIAL INEXPERIENCE

With Joe Kinnear recovering from a heart operation, Newcastle will be in the hands of Chris Hughton and Colin Calderwood for the majority of their relegation battle.

Both are capable coaches, but it is questionable whether either possesses the leadership experience that will surely be necessary in the next two months.

The likes of Tony Mowbray, Tony Pulis and even Gareth Southgate know what to expect between now and the end of the season. Will Hughton be able to hold things together when the pressure is at its most intense?

3. A LACK OF CREATIVITY IN MIDFIELD

Newcastle might boast arguably the best attack in the bottom half of the table, but the likes of Michael Owen and Obafemi Martins will achieve little if chances do not come their way.

The Magpies’ lack of creativity has been glaringly apparent in recent weeks, with Nicky Butt, Geremi and Alan Smith offering nothing but huff and puff from the heart of midfield.

Throw in Damien Duff and Jonas Gutierrez – wide players who have flattered to deceive on far too many occasions this season – and it is hard to see a glut of goalscoring opportunities between now and the end of the season.

4. DEFENSIVE WEAKNESSES

The faces change, but the problems remain the same. Newcastle continue to concede far too many soft goals.

While Sebastien Bassong and Fabricio Coloccini have performed creditably for most of the season, they remain susceptible to the occasional rush of blood.

Crosses continue to pose a problem, and the Magpies have kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 league matches.

Unless that statistic improves, they could be in trouble.

5. THEY DIDN’T EXPECT TO BE IN THIS POSITION

Despite only being out of the bottom three on goal difference, there is still something of an air of disbelief about Newcastle’s continued presence in the relegation battle.

Speak to officials, players and supporters and the underlying message is the same – ‘This wasn’t meant to happen to us’.

It has though, and while Stoke and West Brom steel themselves for a fight that has been on the cards all season, Newcastle expect to wake from a bad dream. With that mindset, might an element of complacency prove problematic?